EDBackgroundSimulation

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This page is about the Background Simulation, commonly abbreviated BGS, in the game Elite Dangerous.

The Background Simulation in Elite Dangerous simulates the political and economical changes that take place in inhabited star systems. The BGS controls everything from security levels, system states, market prices and supply and demand, shipyard and outfitting availability, faction influence, NPC behavior (particularly terrorist and pirate states), and more. Everything you and all the other Commanders do in Elite Dangerous in populated systems affects the BGS.


References

  • [1] The Complete BGS Guide by Cmdr Purrfect (Andrew van der Stock). The link points to a site from which the latest version of the guide is available. The research data that is the basis for the guide is located in this GitHub project. At the time of writing this page, the BGS Guide was a draft of the "2025 EDITION V3.0".
  • [2] ED Wiki: Factions page
  • [3] ED Wiki: Influence page
  • [4] The Buur Pit Squadron Discord (channel #bgs-ops-chat), notably CMDR Gen. Zoff, our super knowledgeable BGS coordinator


Glossary

Asset
A spaceport, planetary port, Odyssey settlement, installation or megaship (enumeration may be incomplete). Every asset is controlled by a → Faction, but not every Faction owns assets.
Economy
An attribute of a → Minor Faction. The current attribute value is exposed in-game in at least two places: 1) The "Status" tab of the Internal panel; and 2) when you select the faction in the System map. The BGS Guide refers to this as "economy slider". See the section Economy and Security further down on this wiki page.
Faction
The ED Wiki [2] distinguishes between → Major Factions (aka → Superpowers) and → Minor Factions. To simplify things, this page follows the BGS Guide and uses the term "Faction" to mean "Minor Faction". There are both NPC factions and factions created and led by players (→ Player Minor Faction). Factions can be affiliated with a → Superpower. A faction that has no such affiliation belongs to the → Independents.
Home system
Every → Faction has a home system. The faction is considered → native to its home system. The faction cannot be retreated from its home system.
Independents
Refers to → Minor Factions that are not aligned with any of the → Superpowers.
Influence, Influence%
In every star system where a → Faction is present, the faction has an influence rating. The rating is given in %, denoting how influential the faction is within the star system in proportion to the other factions. This wiki page often uses "influence%" to make it clear that it is this rating that the text refers to.
Major Faction
The same as a → Superpower.
Minor Faction
A minor power in the game. An organisations that controls dozens of star systems or even only a single station. The BGS Guide, as well as this page, simply uses the term → Faction.
Native
A → Faction is native to its → Home system. Because of its native status, the faction cannot be retreated from its home system.
Player Minor Faction
A → Minor Faction created and led by players.
PMF
Abbreviation for → Player Minor Faction.
Power
Powers are neither → Superpowers nor → Minor Factions. They are exceedingly influential individuals with enormous followings who vie for influence in the Power Play sub-game of Elite Dangerous. Every Power is aligned with either one of the → Superpowers, or with the → Independents. At the time of writing there are 12 of these Powers in the game. Well-known Powers are Aisling Duval, Pranav Antal or Felicia Winters.
Reputation
The player has a reputation within every faction, both → Major Faction and → Minor Faction. Faction reputation is a measure of your trustworthiness to the faction.
Security
  • An attribute of a → Minor Faction. The current attribute value is exposed in-game in at least two places: 1) The "Status" tab of the Internal panel; and 2) when you select the faction in the System map. The BGS Guide refers to this as "security slider". See the section Economy and Security further down on this wiki page.
  • An attribute of a star system. The numerical value is not shown in-game, instead the game UI shows a "security level". The four levels are: High, Medium, Low and Anarchy. Anarchy means "no security" and is present in uninhabited star systems, and star systems controlled by Anarchy minor factions. The Security of a star system is not of direct importance to the BGS discussion on this wiki page.
Superpower
Political union of → Minor Factions that share a similar, overarching culture and economic ties. There are 3 Superpowers in the game: Empire, Federation, and Alliance. There are also the → Independents, but they are not an acknowledged Superpower.
Squadron
A collection of Commanders, typically supporting one or more factions in-game.
State
A → Faction experiences different states as the game world develops: Boom, Bust, Outbreak, Expansion, etc.. Faction state changes have effects on the game world. A large part of the BGS consists of the manipulation of faction states.


General notes

  • Systems can have up to 8 factions.
  • Unpopulated and Detention Center systems (e.g. HR 1172) do not take part in the BGS.
  • It is easier to change influence in low population systems.


Reputation

Reputation levels:

  • Hostile
  • Unfriendly
  • Neutral. This is a player's initial faction reputation.
  • Cordial
  • Friendly
  • Allied


Notes:

  • Factions will offer you more types of missions and higher rewards the more reputation you have with them.
  • Being hostile to a faction prevents you from getting missions from the faction and stops you from (easily) landing at a faction's stations, settlements, and ports.
  • If you are in hostile status, you will recover a little bit of reputation every day until you are unfriendly.


Influence

The "100% sum game"

  • A star system contains several factions.
  • Each faction has an influence level, expressed as a percentage.
  • The total influence of all factions in a star system always is 100%.
  • Doing positive actions for a faction increases that faction's influence, while it decreases the influence of the other factions.


Proportional influence re-distribution

According to the ED Wiki [2] when a faction's influence increases, the corresponding decrease of influence of the other factions is proportional to the amount of influence of those factions factions has.

An example as I understand the rule:

  • Given a star system with 3 factions: A, B and C.
  • Faction A has 60% influence, faction B has 30% influence, faction C has 10% influence.
  • Faction C influence increases by 10%. Consequently the influence of faction A and B must, in total, decrease by 10%.
  • Because faction A has double the influence of faction B, its influence decrease is double the influence decrease of faction B.
  • Faction A's influence is reduced by 2/3 of 10%, i.e. roughly 6.6%.
  • Faction B's influence is reduced by 1/3 of 10%, i.e. roughly 3.3%.


Diminishing returns

  • The BGS Guide [1] states on page 40 that boosting the influence of a faction with low influence takes much less effort than boosting the influence of a faction with high influence.
  • In other words: The more influence a faction has, the more effort it takes to boost its influence even higher.
  • Because influence changes are a 100% sum game, this diminishing returns effect can be turned into an advantage when your actual goal is reducing the influence of, say, the system controlling faction.
  • It is then most efficient to push the influence of all the other factions in the system, in particular those that have the lowest influence.
  • Negative actions against the system controlling faction are still useful, but instead of pouring a lot of effort solely into negative actions, it is more efficient to combine a few negative actions with a moderate amount of influence boosting for the competing factions.


Note: The ED Wiki [3] states that when trying to gain influence for a faction, "[...] it is most beneficial to split activities between the types of support activity, as doing more than a certain amount of a specific activity is subject to diminishing returns". This is a different kind of diminishing returns than the one describe above. It refers to the Bucket Model described further down on this wiki page.


Influence breakpoints

  • Influence under 2.5% will cause a non-native faction to enter the Retreat state, causing it to leave the star system if no action is taken.
  • Influence above 75% will cause a faction to enter the Expansion state, potentially letting it expand to a nearby star system.
  • Influence cannot go below 1%, neither by player activities nor by an automatic influence reduction (e.g. during Retreat state or one of the negative states such as Blight).
    • For Retreat, the ED Wiki [3] states that the automatic -2% influence loss cannot go below 1%. For player activities or other negative states the 1% cap was confirmed by CMDR Gen. Zoff [4].


Faction control

Notes:

  • Every asset (station, settlement, etc.) is controlled by a single faction. To find the Asset Controlling Faction:
    • Open the System Map.
    • Select the "Factions" symbol to display a list of all factions present in the star system.
    • Select a faction, then scroll down until you see a list of assets. These are the assets that the faction controls. If you see the asset you're looking for in the list, you know that the selected faction is the one that controls the asset.
    • If you didn't see the asset, repeat the process for each faction until you found the asset.
  • Every star system is controlled by a single faction. To find the System Controlling Faction:
    • Open the System Map.
    • Select the "Factions" symbol to display a list of all factions present in the star system.
    • The faction at the top of the list is the System Controlling Faction.
    • BGS Guide page 11: "The controlling faction usually has the most influence, but there are circumstances where this is not the case, such as during a coup or a conflict for control." (see Conflicts)
  • Every star system also has a controlling station. To find the System Controlling Station:
    • The ED Wiki [3] states that this "is usually the biggest in the system".
    • The BGS Guide states that this is usualy "the closest and largest spaceport to the main A star. Without spaceports, the first planetary port will be the controlling asset."
    • The BGS Guide also states: "Until you initiate a conflict to control a system, there is no way of telling which asset is the controlling asset."
  • BGS Guide: The System Controlling Station is always controlled by the System Controlling Faction


Star system attributes and states

  • The Controlling Station determines the system's economy state
    • TODO: Example states
  • TODO: It is currently not known how the system's economy type is determined.
  • The Controlling Faction determines the system's government type
    • TODO: Example types
  • The Controlling Faction controls the System Authority vessels in places with no specific associated faction
    • TODO: Which are these places? Hazres? Beacons?
    • Personal observation: At facilities owned by a faction, I see ships labeled "Federal Security Service", and those ships are controlled by the faction that controls the facility.


Faction attributes and states

Game UI

Information about a faction's attributes and states is exposed in the game UI:

  • Call up the "Internal Panel" (the one on the right-hand side).
  • Select the tab "Status".
  • Select the page "System Factions".
  • Select a faction to view its details.


Economy and Security

Overview

  • A faction has both an Economy and a Security value for a given star system.
  • The BGS Guide calls these "sliders" because of their representation in the game UI. I prefer to use the term "attributes".
  • For both Economy and Security, there is a minimum and a maximum value.
  • In the absence of any action, both Economy and Security values will gradually move back towards an equilibrium between the minimum and maximum value.
  • In some sections (at least on page 42ff), the BGS Guide uses the terms "economic influence" and "security influence". I assume these to refer to the faction's Economy and Security values.


Economy

  • Minimum value = Bust.
  • Maximum value = Boom.
  • Economy is a measure of the economic health of the faction. The higher the slider, the more beneficial trade and exploration are. If the faction enters Bust, this can create related event states such as Famine, Blight, and Drought. TODO: Is the term "event state" relevant?


Security

  • Minimum value = Civil Unrest.
  • Maximum value = Civil Liberty.
  • Security represents a faction's ability to maintain law and order in a system. Security is influenced by violent actions.
  • Dropping combat bounties and doing combat-related missions increases Security.
  • Murders and illegal missions that target Security (e.g. kill skimmers) lower Security.
  • Anarchy factions have their Security value locked in the center. They therefore cannot experience Civil Liberty, Civil Unrest, or Lockdown states.


Happiness

TODO


Faction states

ED Wiki:

  • According to the ED Wiki [2], a faction usually has the same state across all star systems in which it is present. The ED Wiki [2] confusingly states: "For states like war which can only apply to one system all other systems will have no active state."
  • In conflict to the above, the ED Wiki [3] states that "a minor faction can experience multiple different states simultaneously in a system where it has a presence."


BGS Guide [1]

  • A faction can be in multiple states at once. Examples: Expansion, None.


The following table aggregates all information known about faction states, taken from the BGS Guide, pages 82ff. Note: Some of the information may be outdated.


List of faction states and their properties and effects
State name State description State type Effect How to enter How to leave Durations Influence / tick Notes
Pending Duration Cool Down
Neutral state
None The neutral state, which is also the default, and which has no special effect. Manipulate the Economy or Security value of the faction. Manipulate the Economy or Security value of the faction. 0 >= 1 0 - Required to farm some HGE types, notably Core Dynamic Composites in Federation systems and Imperial Shielding in Imperial systems. The BGS Guide does not list values for this state - I made up reasonable values.
Economy states
Famine The faction cannot feed itself. Economy Nearby systems spawn highly profitable support missions. Signal Sources labeled "Seeking Foods" and "Distribution Centre" appear near stations controlled by the faction. Decrease the Economy value of the faction, or stay long enough in Bust. Increase the Economy value of the faction. 0 3 - 28 14 - 2 below "None" on Economy slider. The BGS Guide mentions the following missions to reduce the duration of Famine:
  • Cargo Transfer: Illegal Food
  • Passenger: Bulk Scientists
  • Donation: Credits For Famine
  • Donation: Food
Bust The faction cannot pay its bills. Economy Demand for Narcotics, Food Cartridges, and Liquor rise, while supply goes down significantly. Decrease the Economy value of the faction (smuggling is particularly effective), or increase it if the faction is already in Famine. Increase the Economy value of the faction, or decrease it to get into Famine. 1 >= 1 0 - 1 below "None" on Economy slider. Bust eventually leads to Famine. The BGS Guide mentions some mission types that can also get the faction out of Bust, because they have "negative effects for the target faction": Assassinate Pirate Leader, Cargo transfers of illegal drugs, Hostage rescue.
Boom The faction is doing economically well. Economy Market demand and sell-to prices go up, in the case of minerals dramatically. Market supply is also likely to go up. Increase the Economy value of the faction, or decrease it if the faction is already in Investment. Decrease the Economy value of the faction, or increase it to get into Investment. 1 >= 1 0 - 1 above "None" on Economy slider.
Investment A stronger version of Boom. Economy Huge supply of Agronomic Treatment and Insulating Membranes. are huge. Demand and to-sell prices for Painite and a range of other goods increase dramatically. Increase the Economy value of the faction. Decrease the Economy value of the faction. 1 >= 1 0 - 2 above "None" on Economy slider.
Security states. Note: There is no better state than Civil Liberty.
Lockdown Security Stations controlled by the faction become closed. The faction's system influence% gets reduced every day. Negative actions against the faction no longer have any effect. Decrease the Security value of the faction. Drop combat bounties - no other actions have any effect. 1 >= 1 0 - Not confirmed: 2 below "None" on Security slider.
Civil Unrest Security Systems in this state have increased chances of piracy. There is increased demand for Narcotics, Liquor, Beer, Non-lethal Weapons and Personal Weapons, but prices do not significantly change. Decrease the Security value of the faction, or increase it if the faction is already in TODO. Increase the Security value of the faction, or decrease it to get into TODO. 1 >= 1 0 - 1 below "None" on Security slider.
Civil Liberty Security This state is thought to double the effect of combat bounties and combat bonds. Increase the Security value of the faction, or decrease it if the faction is already in TODO. Decrease the Security value of the faction, or increase it to get into TODO. 1 >= 1 0 - 1 above "None" on Security slider.
Conflict states. See section Conflicts.
Election See section Elections 1 4 - 7 1 -
War See section War 1 4 - 7 1 -
Civil War Identical to War for all purposes of gameplay. A Civil War occurs instead of a War if the two factions involved share the same home system.
Expansion and Retreat states
Expansion See section Expansion High demand and to-sell prices. 3 5 - 10 2 -15% at end in source system
Retreat See section Retreat 1 6 1 -2% (not below 1%)
Disaster states
Blight The star system is being affected by some form of disease affecting crop yields. Disaster Food and Basic Medicine demand and prices go. If the star system has the economy type Agriculture, food supply is dramatically cut. Agronomic Treatment has twenty times more demand with a 1.5x price over normal. You cannot actively force this state, it just happens. It might be possible to get a faction that is in Bust to enter Blight, Drought, or Famine, by reducing the faction's Economy value. Trade Agronomic Treatments from nearby station markets (not fleet carriers). 0 1 - 7 14 -1% Blight eventually leads to Famine.
Drought The star system is being affected by a lack of water. Disaster Dramatically reduces the supply of Food, while increasing its to-buy price (if there is any supply at all). Increases demand and prices for Grain, Fruits and Vegetables, Water, Basic Medicines. You cannot actively force this state, it just happens. Deliver Water and Emergency Supplies from nearby systems (not fleet carriers). 0 1 - Unknown 14 - Drought eventually leads to Infrastructure Failure. This state was introduced in the January 2020 Update - see the patch notes for details.
Infrastructure Failure Disaster A lot of Odyssey missions spawn (e.g. "Power On", "Restore" missions). The faction's Security value and its system influence% get reduced every day. Unclear. Possibly having too many wars in the system, accompanied with the delivery of too many bounties and combat bonds. May take 14 days to take effect. Increase the security value of the faction. Take Odyssey "Power On" and "Restore" missions. Wait. 0 >= 1 14 -1% The game suggests that trade in Machinery helps shorten the state, but it does not seem to work. This state was introduced in the January 2020 Update - see the patch notes for details.
Natural Disaster Disaster It's unclear how this state works. The state is occasionally manually induced by Frontier. It's unclear how to otherwise enter this state, if at all. Anything helps: Missions, trade, exploration data, bounties. 0 1 - Unknown 14 - This state was introduced in the January 2020 Update - see the patch notes for details.
Other states
Outbreak Random TODO Mostly unclear. Potentially inducing actions are remaining in Bust for too long, and missions for delivering Biowaste (although there are too few of these missions to cause Outbreak on their own). Missions that clearly state they help to clear Outbreak. 3 3 - 28 14 -
Pirate Attack Random More pirate threat USS (Unidentified Signal Source) appear. Interdictions of trade ships increase. Demand for weapons (non-lethal?) and Narcotics increases. Prices for some goods skyrockets because trade has become riskier. Mostly unclear. Apparently the state occurs randomly when things go well, e.g. the faction is in Boom. It is thought that positive player actions ensuing from Boom could trigger Pirate Attacks. In general, increase the Security value of the faction. Also: clear pirate USS, drop combat bounties, "Kill Pirate Lord" missions. 0 1 - Unknown 14 -
Public Holiday Random TODO Mostly unclear. Apparently the state occurs randomly when things go well. Decrease the Economy value of the faction. 0 2 14 +1% This state was introduced in the January 2020 Update - see the patch notes for details.
Terrorist Attack A slightly worse version of Pirate Attack. Random Demand and to-sell prices for Basic Medicines, Advanced Medicines, Survival Equipment and Non-lethal Weapons increase. To-sell prices for minerals decrease dramatically. The BGS Guide has clear instructions: "Reduce the security of the system by committing violent crimes and murders. Take combat missions against the faction." Given that the BGS Guide relates the Terrorist Attack state to the Pirate Attack state where it's not clear how to enter the state, I think that Terrorist Attack probably also occurs randomly, but the stated player actions increase the chances that the Terrorist Attack state occurs. Drop combat bounties. Do security related missions. Clear terrorist USS. 0 3 14 -1% This state was introduced in the January 2020 Update - see the patch notes for details.

Notes:

  • The "State type" column indicates where the state has its origin. Economy indicates the state is induced by the faction's Economy value, Security indicates the state is induced by the faction's Security value.
  • "To-buy" and "to-sell" prices refer to the prices when the player buys or sells commodities.
  • Duration and Influence/Tick values: The BGS Guide states "These values need to be confirmed with Elite Dangerous: Odyssey".
  • Column "Influence / Tick": The BGS Guide does not state when the influence% change is effective. Assumption: While the state is Active, but not while it is Pending or Cool Down.


System states

General system state notes

BGS Guide[1]: At the time of writing there are three main types of system state:

  • Local state
    • The system controlling faction's state is the system state, but it can be a secondary faction's state in some circumstances.
  • Global state
    • An older state type, of which Expansion is the last remaining global state.
  • AX state
    • A newer system state type, of Alert, Invasion, Control, and Recovery.
  • TODO: Find out whether these state types are independent, or whether some states of a given state type are possible only in combination with states of another state type. Example 1: Is the global state Expansion possible together all local states? Example 2: Is the AX state Invasion possible with all local states?


The Bucket Model

The BGS Guide [1] explains this starting from page 36.


Bucket Model Summary

  • The game has buckets for a large variety of things.
  • Doing actions fill or empty those buckets. Once a bucket is full, or empty, a trigger is reached, and something happens (e.g. the next economic state is reached), then the bucket is emptied, or filled, and the process starts over.
  • A diminishing returns mechanic makes it ineffective to only invest time in a single activity that fills or empties just one bucket. The avoid (or at least reduce) the diminishing returns effect, the most effective use of your game time is to do different things that affect multiple buckets. The BGS Guide has a number of important-looking formulas on page 39 - these are not replicated here because they go far beyond the detail level that I'm willing to learn.
  • During conflicts (Wars and Elections) the diminishing returns effect does not apply. You simply have to do more of the required activity for the faction that you support than someone else does for the faction that you oppose.
  • As stated elsewhere on this page, large population star systems require more effort to achieve a given effect than low population star systems. On page 40 the BGS guide shows a formula that expresses the effort is on a logarithmic scale, roughly resulting in a 100% increase of the base effort for every multiple of 10 in population. Concrete example: If the base effort is for a 1000 population system (10^3), then for a 1 billion population system (10^9) the effort is 6 times the base effort.


Simplified Bucket Model

To simplify things, you can think of a model consisting of only a few buckets, that roughly correspond to some of the main activities you can do in the game. The following table gives an overview of how you can positively or negatively affect each of these bucket.

Simplified bucket model and actions that affect each bucket
Bucket Positive actions Negative actions Notes
Trade Trade profit, within demand Trade loss,
Trade exceeding demand
Exploration / Black Markets Exploration Black Markets,
Smuggling
Combat Bounty vouchers,
Winning wars for your faction		 Murder,
Winning wars for opposing faction
Missions Mission completion Mission fails,
Taking missions against a faction
Scenarios Scenario completion Scenario fails,
Scenario completion for the opposing faction


Conflicts

General notes on conflicts

  • The potential for a conflict occurs when at the server tick the influence% of a faction is scheduled to increase or decrease to the same influence% value, or beyond, of another faction in the same star system. See the section When exactly does a conflict occur? for details.
  • Conflicts are either Wars or Elections, depending on the involved factions' Ethos (which is determined by their government types). See the section Government types and Ethos for details.
  • The two factions engaged in conflict both put one of the assets they control on the table. If the conflict ends with a winner, the winning faction takes control of the asset of the losing faction. See the section How are the assets at risk determined? for details.
  • The duration of a conflict is broken down into three parts:
    • 1 day in which the conflict is Pending, but is not yet active. The conflict is inevitable now.
    • 4-7 days during which the conflict is active. See the section How the active part of a conflict plays out for details.
    • 1 day of Cool Down. Both factions cannot engage in another conflict during this day. CMDR Gen. Zoff [4] clarified that this does not only prevent another conflict with each other, but also with any other faction.
  • While the conflict lasts, the two factions engaged in the conflict have their influence% locked.
    • Activities that would usually increase or decrease the factions' influence% have their effect "redirected" to determine the outcome of the conflict, or they don't have any effect at all (e.g. trade during a War or combat during Elections have no effect).
    • Because of the "100% sum game", this can have interesting effects for factions that are not locked in the conflict. For instance, a non-conflicting faction that increases their influence% during the conflict will decrease other non-conflicting factions' influence% more than usual.
    • Note: The BGS Guide never explicitly states that this influence% lock takes place, but in various sections of the guide the lock is implied. I have been able to observe the lock in a conflict I took part in in September 2026.
    • The BGS Guide states that the Cool Down day can be used to change influence% on either side, to either guarantee another War or evade one. The conclusion is that the influence% lock only exists during the Pending day and the 4-7 days during which the conflict is active.
  • When a faction that is not the System Controlling Faction raises their influence% above 60%, that faction triggers a Coup conflict, which as usual results in a War or Elections with the system controlling faction.


When exactly does a conflict occur?

The BGS Guide has the following rather ambiguous statement on page 12: "A faction will bump into other factions with similar influence levels. If one or both factions have assets, a conflict will result, and the game will lock the two factions together". It is notably unclear what "similar" means, and what "bump into" means.

The eminent BGS expert CMDR Gen. Zoff [4] made some clarifications, on which this section is based.

  • As stated in the general notes section above, the potential for a conflict occurs when at the server tick the influence% of a faction is scheduled to increase, or decrease, to the same influence% value, or beyond, of another faction in the same star system.
  • "Potential" refers to a number of exceptions that prevent a conflict even though the influence% values would allow it. These are the exceptions:
    • A faction that has less than 7% influence is below the conflict threshold and never engages in a conflict.
    • A faction that is in Retreat state never engages in a conflict - even if during the Retreat state the faction's influence increases to 7% or above and the faction is now above the conflict threshold.
    • A faction without assets never engages in a conflict with another faction that also has no assets. At least one of the two factions must have assets.
  • With the exceptions out of the way, here are some examples that show how increasing or decreasing a faction's influence% value triggers a conflict.
    • All examples are based on this scenario: There are three factions A, B, C in a star system. Faction A has 10% influence, faction B has 15% influence and faction C has 20% influence. None of the exceptions listed above apply, i.e. all factions have some assets, none of them are in Retreat state, and all of them have 7% influence or more.
    • Example 1: The influence of faction A is scheduled to increase to a value between 15% and 19.999...% (i.e. below 20%). Faction A and B will engage in a conflict. The game discards any influence increase of faction A beyond 15%, i.e. it sets faction A's influence to 15%, so that it has the same influence% value as faction B.
      • Example 2: The influence of faction A is scheduled to increase to 20% or higher. Because faction A "jumps over" faction B, it will now engage in a conflict with faction C. The game discards any influence increase of faction A above 20%, i.e. it sets faction A's influence to 20%, so that it has the same influence% value as faction C.
      • Example 3: The influence of faction C is scheduled to decrease to a value between 10.001% (i.e. above 10%) and 15%. Faction C and B will engage in a conflict. The game discards any influence decrease of faction C below 15%, i.e. it sets faction C's influence to 15%, so that it has the same influence% value as faction B.
      • Example 4: The influence of faction C is scheduled to decrease to 10% or lower. Because faction C "jumps over" faction B, it will now engage in a conflict with faction A. The game discards any influence decrease of faction C below 10%, i.e. it sets faction C's influence to 10%, so that it has the same influence% value as faction A.
        • TODO Does the game also discard faction C's influence% decrease if faction C would land at less than 7% influence, i.e. below the conflict threshold? Or does the game prevent the conflict because faction C is now below the conflict threshold.
  • If a conflict is prevented by one of the exceptions, the game does not discard influence increases and decreases.


Government types and Ethos

To determine whether a conflict will result in a War or in an Election, the conflicting factions' Ethos needs to be compared. A faction's government type usually determines its Ethos, although there are exceptions.

List of government types for each Ethos
Ethos types
Criminal Autocrat Corporation Social
Anarchy Dictatorship Corporate Communist
Feudal Confederacy
Patronage Cooperative
Prison Colony Democracy
Theocracy (see notes) Theocracy (see notes)

Notes:

  • The Ethos discussed here is not the same as the Ethos in Power Play.
  • For Theocracy, the Ethos depends on whether it's an NPC faction or a faction created and led by players (= a PMF faction). The BGS Guide does not go beyond this, but CMDR Gen. Zoff [4] explains it like this:
    • If the faction is an NPC faction, then it always has the Autocrat Ethos.
    • If the faction is a PMF faction, then the Ethos depends on the players' choice when they created the faction. To find out in advance, have a look at a station controlled by the faction: If the station has a black market it has the Social Ethos. It is not clear if the absence of a black market is a guaranteed indicator for the Autocrat Ethos.
  • In some cases factions have an Ethos that does not match their government type - this is particularly true for factions placed by Frontier. It may be possible to get hints about a faction's Ethos by observing secondary indicators:
    • Criminal factions offer far more illegal missions.
    • Social and Criminal factions tend to open black markets, while Autocrat and Corporation factions tend to close them.


The following table shows which state - War or Elections - will result from a conflict between two factions with the given Ethos.

Conflict type table
Criminal Autocrat Corporation Social
Criminal War War War War
Autocrat War Elections War War
Corporation War War Elections War
Social War War War Elections

Notes:

  • When the two factions involved share the same home system, the resulting state is Civil War. For all practical purposes, a Civil War is the same as a War.


How are the assets at risk determined?

Two factions that engage in conflict both put one of the assets they control on the table. If the conflict ends with a winner, the winning faction takes control of the asset of the losing faction. The assets on both sides are called "asset at risk".

As previously explained, if both factions do not have any assets, they do not engage in conflict. But if at least one of them does have at least one asset, then a conflict is possible and the ED Wiki [3] states that the asset at risk on each side is the "highest valued asset". Based on information provided by CMDR Gen. Zoff [4], an asset's value is determined as follows:

  • The main factor to determine an asset's value is its type. The following list shows the order, with the highest valued asset type at the top.
    • Large space starport
    • Space outpost
    • Planetary port - and yes, this means a space outpost is more valuable than even a large planetary port that is much more expensive to build than a space outpost!
    • Settlement
    • Hub
    • Installations
  • When two assets have the same type, the asset that has the most station services is more valuable.
  • When two assets have the same number of station services, then travel distance from the system's entry point is the tie breaker. Closer to the entry point = more valuable.


When a faction is the System Controlling Faction, its control of the star system is also at risk.


Based on the above, the assets at risk can be known in advance before a conflict starts. Once a conflict has started - that is even during the first preparation day when the conflict is in Pending state - the assets at risk on both sides are announced in the Station News on any station in the star system.


How the active part of a conflict plays out

A conflict plays out the same way, regardless of whether the conflict is a War or Elections:

  • A conflict lasts 4-7 days.
  • A conflict ends as soon as one of the factions wins 4 days. That faction wins the conflict.
  • If no side wins 4 days, the conflict ends after 7 days, and the faction who won more days wins the conflict.
  • A conflict has no conclusive outcome if neither faction wins 4 days, and after 7 days both factions have won the same number of days.


How to win a day

  • A day is won by the side on whose behalf activities accumulated the most value.
  • As a general rule, in a War combat related activities count, while in Elections non-combat related activities count. For details see the next sections.
  • Each conflict type has a main activity that is the primary way to count a day's outcome.
    • In a War: Combat in Conflict Zones.
    • In Elections: Completing (non-combat) Election missions.
  • If the primary way to count would result in a tie for the day, the value of various other activities that match the conflict type are used as tie breakers.


Conflict outcome

  • If there is a winner
    • The defeated faction's asset at risk is assigned to the winning faction.
      • Experimentally found during a conflict in September 2026: When the conflict outcome becomes clear after 4 wins of one faction, the asset at risk does not immediately change sides. TODO: Assumed to be true, but needs confirmation: The asset changes sides after the Cool Down day.
    • The winning faction's influence% will go up by about 1.5% and the losing faction's influence% will go down by about 1.5%.
    • Tie-breaking activities that occur on the last day of the conflict (could be any day between 4-7) not only affect the conflict outcome, but they also have an effect on the 1.5% influence increase/decrease of the conflicting factions immediately after the conflict. As a result, the losing faction can still end up with a higher influence% than the winning faction if they did more tie-breaker work than the winning faction.
  • If there is no winner
    • Each asset at risk remains with its current controlling faction.
    • There is only minimal movement in influence% between the two factions.



  • Regardless of who wins the conflict
    • In a War only: The faction that won the most times at each Odyssey settlement (other than any staked in the conflict itself) is assigned as the new owner of the settlement.
    • Combat bonds not handed in can be kept for the next War.


War activities

How to win a day in a War

  • A day is won by the side that won the key lever of most Conflict Zones (CZs) and objectives completed.
    • TODO: What does "and objectives completed" mean?
  • It is not simply the raw number of CZs won - different types of CZs are worth more than others (see page 58 of the BGS Guide). Roughly:
    • Space CZs are four times as effective as ground CZs of the same difficulty level.
    • 2 low difficulty space CZs beats a single high difficulty space CZ.
    • 5 low difficulty space CZs beats three high difficulty space CZs.
    • The ratio for medium difficulty space CZs is not mentioned.
    • Side objectives are mostly irrelevant.
  • If both sides have won the same number of CZs, then to break the tie all combat related activities that have been handed in are tallied up to determine the winner. "Combat related activities" are at least bounty vouchers, combat bonds, and combat-related missions - it's unclear whether there are more. More specifically, the BGS Guide names the following:
    • "Kill X enemy ships" missions
    • Combat bonds and bounty vouchers
    • Any combat related mission, such as assassination missions
    • Installation immediate scenarios with a combat focus
    • If you take a war-time mission (war time salvage and strategic courier jobs) you have to do some form of combat, otherwise the mission is unlikely to count
  • Implied by the wording on page 57 of the BGS Guide: Tie-breaking combat related activities still increase/decrease the affected faction's Security, as they ordinarily do. The exception is the last day of the conflict (could be any day between 4-7) where tie-breaking activities increase/decrease factions' influence% instead of affecting factions' Security, potentially resulting in the losing faction to end up with a higher influence% than the winning faction.


Conflict outcome

  • Regardless of who wins the conflict: The faction that won the most times at each Odyssey settlement (other than any staked in the conflict itself) is assigned as the new owner of the settlement.
  • Combat bonds not handed in can be kept for the next War.


Space Conflict Zone (space CZ) handling

  • Note: Ground CZ handling is explained in detail on the EDOnFoot wiki page.
  • Space CZs in the current star system are shown in the External Panel on the "Navigation" tab. Ground CZs are not shown.
    • Possible entries:
      • Conflict Zone [Low Intensity]
      • Conflict Zone [Medium Intensity]
      • Conflict Zone [High Intensity]
    • For the purpose of filtering in the "Navigation" tab, space CZs are "Points of Interest".
    • When you select a Space CZ, the Info panel shows the two factions that are engaged in conflict in that CZ.
  • Participating in a Space CZ
    • When you enter the Conflict Zone, the Info panel shows a warning text: "Warning! Entering Conflict Zone".
    • After a moment, the Comms panel shows information about the CZ.
      • The CZ intensity (Low, Medium, High).
      • The two factions involved, and your Reputation with them.
    • The CZ has ships from both factions.
    • All ships in the CZ are marked as "LAWLESS", indicating that shooting at them will not incur a bounty.
    • How to take sides
      • In the Comms panel you can select the faction for which you want to fight. Press key "4" (not the default, my personal key binding) to activate the Comms panel. The Comms panel now expands the displayed information for the two conflicting factions, with the text "Fight for this faction" at the bottom. Use the appropriate control to shift focus to the right and select one of the two factions.
      • Or you simply attack one of the ships - the faction that controls the ship will become your enemy.
    • The side you chose is the enemy only during the current CZ. If you enter another CZ later on, you can again choose sides.
    • After you take sides, the Info panel shows a green and a red bar, indicating the score of each side. Green is the side that you chose, red is the opposing side. The bar that is filled more indicates which side is winning.
    • The goal is that your side destroys a given number of opposing ships befor the opposing side does. In short, your side must fill the bar in the Info panel before the opposing side does.
    • The CZ ends when one side has destroyed the target number of opposing ships. In other words, when a side has filled up their score bar in the Info panel.
    • In the External panel, on the "Transactions" tab under "Claims", you can see the value of the Combat Bonds that you earned.
    • Important: Make sure not to damage ships from your own side, or the ships on your side will also start attacking you.
  • Space CZ missions are given out by a faction even at a station controlled by the opposing faction. Missions are titled "Kill <n> ships".
  • To sell Combat Bonds, go to any station in the system where the conflict is (it doesn't matter which faction controls the station), select "Contacts" in the station menu, then "Combat Bond Contact". Redeem only the Combat Bonds issued by the faction you want to support.


Elections

How to win a day in Elections

  • A day is won by the side that won the key lever of most non-combat election missions completed.
  • If both sides have completed the same number of non-combat election missions, then to break the tie all election and economy-related activities that have been handed in are tallied up to determine the winner. The BGS Guide names the following:
    • Trade. The tie breaker counts for the faction controlling the station with the market where the commodities are sold. The BGS Guide states "high demand / high profit trade" - it is unclear whether "high" has any actual meaning here (i.e. trade that is "not high" does not count at all) or whether it merely means that the higher the demand/profit the more it counts. Assumption: The latter.
    • Exploration data. The tie breaker counts for the faction controlling the station where the data is handed in.
    • Any economic mission, such as donations, source and return, passenger, and trade delivery. The tie breaker counts for the mission giving faction.
    • Smuggling. The tie breaker counts for the faction controlling the station with the Black Market where the smuggled commodities are sold.
  • Note: The above statements "The tie breaker counts for ..." are implied by the BGS Guide stating on page 61 the condition "if you own a station" for tie breakers for various activities.
  • If you take non-combat missions and you end up in combat, or are earning a bounty or fine, the mission is unlikely to count towards the win state for a day.
  • Note: On the last day of the conflict (could be any day between 4-7), tie-breaking activities increase/decrease factions' influence%, potentially resulting in the losing faction to end up with a higher influence% than the winning faction.


In-game indicators

The current state of a conflict can be seen in various places in the game:

  • Internal panel, on the "Status" tab where the factions present in the current system are listed. Select one of the factions involved in the conflict and you will see:
    • Conflict Status: A range with an indicator. When the indicator is in the middle position the current conflict status is "Draw". When the indicator is on the left or on the right, the faction on that side is winning.
    • Below the range is a text summary of the current status. Possible values: "Draw", "Victory" (for the selected faction), "Defeat" (for the selected faction)
    • The left side of the range is red, indicating the opposing faction, while the right side of the range is blue, indicating the selected faction.
    • Below the range, you see the name of the opposing faction, as well as an "Attack" and "Defend" section, indicating which assets are at risk. The "Attack" section shows the asset at risk controlled by the opposing faction, the "Defend" section shows the asset at rick controlled by the selected faction.
    • At the bottom, the "Current states" section shows "War" or "Elections".
  • External panel, on the leftmost tab that is not labeled but only has an info icon
    • Below the usual star system information, there is a dedication section titled "Active conflict types".
    • The section lists each conflict in the star system, with the conflicting factions, the conflict type (War, Elections), which day the conflict is in (e.g. 4/7), the number of days each side won, and on how many days there was a tie.
  • Station News. This has an entry for every faction present in the system. The entries for the factions involved in the conflict provide the following information:
    • You can see if the conflict is Pending or Active, based on the wording
      • The faction is preparing for conflict with ...
      • The faction is engaged in conflict with ...
    • The assets at risk are mentioned with the following wordings:
      • The faction is in danger of losing control of ...
      • If the faction is the System Controlling faction: The faction is in danger of losing control of ... and the system
  • In the System Map, the summary shows the system state as "War" or "Elections"
    • TODO: Is this also true if neither of the two conflicting factions are the System Controlling faction?


How to change a faction's attribute values (influence, etc.)

ED Wiki

How to change faction influence ratings, according to ED Wiki [3]:

  • Increase influence
    • Completing missions for the faction.
    • Trading with stations or outposts owned by that faction.
    • Turning in bounty vouchers from the faction.
    • Selling exploration data to stations owned by that faction.
  • Decrease influence
    • Commit crimes in the system, if the faction currently controls it.
    • Destroy the faction's ships and kill inhabitants of their settlements.
  • Neutral activities
    • Abandoning, timing out, or failing missions does not affect any faction's influence.


BGS Guide overview

BGS Guide [1]

  • A station's controlling (owning) faction gets influence from trade, universal cartographics (if available), combat bonds, and missions.
  • Non-controlling factions can only offer missions and combat bounties as influence levers.
  • Installations (i.e. where you can't dock): Doing positive or negative actions at the installation, such as completing a scenario or attacking skimmers, will affect the installation's owner.
  • Non-Dockable Megaships
    • These Megaships are owned by the system controlling faction. When they move between systems, the may change the owning faction.
    • These Megaships provide scenarios – immediate missions – which you can complete to boost the controlling faction, or deliberately fail to reduce the controlling faction.
    • You can also "attack" the megaship by hacking the comms array or stealing the cargo with hatch breaker limpets. The BGS guide [1] does not say what the consequences are, but it is implied that they will hurt the controlling faction.
    • Often, there is loose cargo around the megaship. If it says, "Legal salvage" you can collect it without hurting the controlling faction. If it says "Illegal salvage" collecting it will incur a small fine and reduce the controlling faction's security slider. Illegal salvage is considered stolen, and you can sell it to black markets.
  • Dockable Megaships
    • Some player-owned Megaships exist, such as Dionysus in HIP 17044 - which does not move and acts like a regular system station, or Cannon’s The Gnosis - which does move but does not act like a regular system station – it does not introduce Cannon's faction to an unpopulated system.
    • Whichever faction provides the system authority ships protecting the megaship is the owner for BGS purposes.
    • Dockable Megaships never have scenarios.


Tabular details

Activity Affected faction Attribute effects Notes
Type Specialty Influence Economy Security Happiness Other
Trade activities
Buy comodities from market Station controlling faction + More supply according to the three-bar-signal (*3) is better.
Sell comodities to market Sell with profit Station controlling faction + More demand according to the three-bar-signal (*3) is better. More profit is better, but the three-bar-signal is more important. Avoid the bulk sales tax (*5). On page 47 the BGS Guide states that "intra-system trade loops give more influence, especially if you control both stations, than system-to-system trade loops." - no explanation for this is given. When transferring a commodity to the carrier hold, the commodity "remembers" its original buy price, thus guaranteeing you that you will achieve the same BGS effect as if you had made the trade directly. Selling to a carrier market has no BGS effect. See (*4) for comments when selling commodities that were bought from a carrier market.
Sell comodities to market Sell with loss Station controlling faction - More demand according to the three-bar-signal (*3) is better (i.e. gives a higher decrease). More loss is better. Unconfirmed, but it would make sense that the bulk sales tax (*5) would be desirable here since it further reduces the sell price. Highly priced commodities can be found e.g. in Boom or Civil Liberty systems, low buy prices exist in e.g. Infrastructure Failure systems.
Sell comodities to market with zero demand Station controlling faction -
Sell illegal goods (*6) Station controlling faction is not Anarchy Station controlling faction - (-) (-) Typically sold at a Black Market, but in rare cases there might be demand in the regular market which means you can also sell there. The nature of the commodity sold determines whether Economy decreases (most commodities, e.g. Imperial Slaves) or Security decreases (only some, e.g. Battle Weapons). Information taken from the "Reducing influence" section of the BGS Guide. There is related information in the "Boosting influence" section of the guide, but it is very ambiguous. Page 52: Higher value commodities have greater impact.
Sell stolen goods (*6) Station controlling faction is not Anarchy Station controlling faction (-) (-) The BGS Guide's wording on page 50f implies that - in contrast to illegal goods - stolen goods can only be sold at a Black Market. The nature of the commodity sold determines whether Economy decreases (most commodities) or Security decreases (only some). Information taken from the "Reducing influence" section of the BGS Guide. There is related information in the "Boosting influence" section of the guide, but it is very ambiguous. Page 52: Higher value commodities have greater impact.
Sell stolen or illegal goods Station controlling faction is Anarchy Station controlling faction + This is more or less the reverse of the previous two entries. TODO: Can Security be increased in an Anarchy?
Sell mined goods The BGS Guide states that "[...] sales of mined commodities do not affect trade influence or the economy slider through sales or smuggling, unless you use mined goods as a mission commodity."


Exploration / Black Markets activities
Hand in exploration data TODO (Assumption: station controlling faction) + Universal Cartographics must be present at a station. TODO: BGS Guide p. 43 mentions a daily cap - find out whether there is a hard cap or whether this merely refers to the diminishing returns mechanic when filling buckets.
Hand in Exobiology data TODO (Assumption: station controling faction) Only raises reputation. Exobiology has no BGS-relevant effect.


Combat activities. See EDCombat.
Hand in bounty vouchers (*1) In system where bounty issuer (*2) is present Bounty issuer (*2) + Using a Kill Warrant Scanner is not advisable when playing the BGS, because it can reveal bounties issued by factions that you don't want to support. See (*1) for a hint how to get rid of unwanted bounty vouchers.
Hand in bounty vouchers (*1) In system where bounty issuer (*2) is not present Bounty issuer (*2) Only raises your reputation with the bounty issuer faction. When the bounty issuer faction is not present in a system, the bounty voucher can only be reeemed at an Interstellar Factor.
Kill unwanted ships, NPCs or players Anywhere Faction the ship, NPC or player belongs to ? ? ? ? ? Aka "murders", "clean kills". Very effective, but also very dangerous: You rack up a huge bounty very fast that may prove to be unpayable. Also NPC ships called Advanced Tactical Response (ATR) will attack you at some point (depends on the system security, e.g. in a High Security system they will attack after 4 murders), and almost certainly destroy you. Read the BGS Guide for a description of the dangers. TODO: The BGS Guide does not say in what way the faction is negatively affected. Educated guess: Security?
Mission to wipe out Odyssey settlement Settlement controlling faction - (?) The BGS Guide on page 51 does not state what kind of negative effect this kind of mission has. Educated guess: Security. Killing scavenger NPCs helps the settlement controlling faction.


Mission activities
Completing a positive mission In-ship mission (Horizons) Mission giver + + The mission details specify whether it affects Economy or Security. The highest value is 5.
Completing a positive mission On-foot mission (Odyssey) Mission giver + + The mission details specify whether it affects Economy or Security. The highest value is 4. NPCs can give 4 value missions, terminals only give at maximum 3 value missions.
Completing a negative mission Mission target These are typically Illegal missions. TODO Find out how you will know the attribute affected by the mission.
Failing a mission Mission giver (-) (-) Abandoning a mission does not fail it. To fail a mission, you have to wait until the mission expires. For passenger missions, leave the station then hit the station until the ship is destroyed. Self-destruct may also work. Failing missions also loses you reputation. The negative effect of a failed missions is thought to be the smallest reward choice, but the advice is to count only on getting a single point reduction even if the smallest reward would be two points.


Scenario activities


Notes:

  • (*1) Bounty vouchers can be redeemed in any star system where the bounty issuer faction is present. Redeeming a voucher raises the security of the bounty issuer faction in the system where the voucher is handed in, i.e. not in the system where the bounty was earned. It also does not matter which faction controls the station where you redeem the voucher. Note: You can also redeem a bounty voucher in a system where the bounty issuer faction is not present, but this requires an Interstellar Factor. If the bounty issuer faction is not present in the system, then it will not get any influence, but your reputation with the faction will increase. This can be used to get rid of bounty vouchers issued by factions that you don't want to support.
  • (*2) The bounty voucher for WANTED ships always is the current jurisdiction, which is equal to the System Controlling Faction, regardless of where you are in a given star system. It also does does not matter which faction the the WANTED ship belongs to. For bounties revealed by a Kill Warrant Scanner, you cannot know in advance which bounties these will be.
  • (*3) The three-bar-signal in a buying or selling market, shown next to a commodity's supply or demand number, indicates how large the commodity's supply or demand is:
    • Three green bars: High supply, or high demand.
    • No bars: Medium supply, or medium demand.
    • Three red hollow bars: Low supply, or low demand.
    • TODO: It is unknown what the signal shows when there is zero demand. A station where a commodity is listed with zero demand will accept an infinite amount of the commodity.
    • TODO: It is unknown what the signal shows when there is zero supply. For BGS this has no relevancy, though, since a station with zero supply of a commodity will simply not let you buy that commodity.
  • (*4) When selling a commodity to a carrier market, page 45 of the BGS Guide is contradictory:
  • First it says "Trade from the carrier market has a diminished influence effect on BGS. [...] Trade profit with demand will raise influence.".
  • The BGS Guide then describes how trading via transfers to/from the carrier hold retain the commodity's original buy price, but says "If the goods are sold to the carrier market or bought from the carrier market, this does not work. Only transfers work.", thus implying that commodities sold to the carrier market do not retain the original buy price.
  • Then the BGS Guide states "Since the trade update, using your fleet carrier to re-price goods, such as selling gold or silver at 5% of galactic average, to sell at a nearby station for incredible on paper profits, no longer works." - in my mind, the only way how this can be prevented is that the commodity retains its original buy price.
  • All this seems very confusing.
  • (*5) The bulk sales tax (aka "Cutter Tax", because of the Cutter's large cargo capacity) applies when the amount of a commodity you sell exceeds 4 times the demand for that commodity. The "tax" manifests in that the sell price is reduced by approximately 25%. A lower sell price results in a smaller profit, therefore reducing the effect on Economy the sale has.
  • (*6) Obtaining and selling illegal or stolen goods
    • Obtaining illegal goods is easy - just find a selling market where they're not illegal.
    • Obtaining stolen goods is also not too hard: Accept a delivery mission and then abandon the mission (your reputation will be reduced). Alternatives for stolen goods are 1) obviously do pirating; 2) steal cargo from megaships with hatchbreaker limpets.
    • Bulk stolen goods: Find a team mission for delivering a large quantity of a commodity, preferably high value (e.g. Palladium). Set up a secure warehouse at your carrier. Buy the commodities e.g. from an Extraction market, then sell them to the warehouse. Abandon the mission to mark the commodities as stolen. Your reputation will drop, but because it's a team mission you will get no fine.
    • When carrying illegal or stolen goods, try to avoid being scanned when you approach a station. If you do get scanned, you will get a fine. Get into the station - it will have only a reduced menu, but you should be able to pay off the fine at one of the contacts. Once done you can sell your cargo as planned.


How to change a system's state

Page 53 of the BGS Guide talks about "inducing negative states":

  • When Economy and Security reach low values, a negative state may be triggered on the next tick.
  • A negative state may bring with them a daily influence drop.
  • A low Security value may lead to the system entering the Lockdown state. This slows down negative actions.


Expansion

Basics

  • When a faction increases its influence% above 75% in any of the systems where it is present, it goes into Expansion state and tries to expand into a neighbouring star system where it is not yet present. Note The faction must stay above 75% for at least one day for the Expansion to start.
  • In case the faction goes above 75% in multiple star systems, the game automatically selects one of those star systems as the source system. See the "Expansion source star system selection" section below for details.
  • The game also automatically selects the target star system where the faction tries to expand to. See the "Expansion target star system selection" section below for details.
  • The Expansion does not take place instantaneously, it spans across several days. See the "Expansion timetable" section below for details.
  • The effects of a successful Expansion are detailed in the "Expansion effects" section below.


Note: If the neighbouring star system is already occupied by other players, it is considered good policy to contact them and establish whether your faction is welcome.


Expansion source star system selection

  • The Expansion state is a global state for the faction, i.e. at any given time it can only expand from a single source star system.
  • As a consequence, if a faction increases its influence% above 75% in multiple star systems, one of these star systems needs to be selected as the source star system from which the Expansion originates.
  • The BGS Guide has conflicting information about the selection criteria:
    • In section "Which system will be the expansion system?" on page 64 it states that "According to the game, expansions happen from systems that are happiest." and then on page 65 "However, in practice, the choice of which system to expand seems to be random."
    • In section "Expansion Timetable" on page 65 it states that "the one with the most influence will be the source system."
  • In case the selection criteria is Happiness, the BGS Guide lists the following actions as increasing Happiness. Note that the list may not be complete.
    • Delivering high-demand trade
    • Doing influential expansion missions
    • Dropping exploration data
  • TODO Say something where the selected source star system is visible in the game. BGS Guide page 65: "it will be shown in station news wherever the faction is present."


Expansion target star system selection

To select the Expansion's target star system, the game first determines the range in which to look for eligible star systems.

  • The range is a cube of which the source star system is the center.
  • The cube side length is determined as follows:
    • For the first expansion attempt, the cube side length is 34 ly.
    • If no eligible target star system can be found, the first expansion attempt fails.
    • After some time has elapsed (see section "Expansion timetable") a second Expansion attempt is made where the cube's side length is extended to 52 ly.
    • If no eligible target star system can be found, the second expansion attempt fails.
    • From now on, no Expansions can take place anymore from the source star system.


The following are eligible target star systems:

  • Those where less than 8 factions are present, and where the expanding faction currently has no presence.
  • The star system is not permit-locked.
  • The star system has no other special rules that make it impossible to expand into (e.g. Sol, Shinrarta Dezhra).


From among those, the target star system is selected according to the following priority rules:

  1. The target star system has less than 7 factions and the faction has never had any presence in the star system.
    • TODO: It is currently not know what the tie breaker is if there are several matching target star systems.
  2. The target star system has exactly seven factions and a suitable target faction is present with which the expanding faction can wage an Invasion War. See the "Invasion War rules" section below for details.
    • If multiple target star system candidates exists that fulfill the criteria, the winner is the star system where the target faction picked for the Invasion War has the lowest influence%.
  3. The target star system has less than 7 factions and the faction has had a presence in the star system before, but has been retreated.
    • TODO: It is currently not know what the tie breaker is if there are several matching target star systems.


If no target star system can be found that fulfills any of the priority rules above, the Expansion attempt fails. As explained above in the "range" section, if it was the first Expansion attempt with a smaller range, then a second Expansion attempt with an extended range is possible. If that second Expansion attempt also fails, then the source star system is permanently blocked from all future Expansion attempts by any faction!


Invasion War rules

The game picks a target faction with which the expanding faction can wage an Invasion War, according to the following priority rules:

  1. The target faction is in retreat.
    • If multiple target factions are in retreat, the one with the lowest influence% is selected.
  2. The target faction is non-native (i.e. it can be retreated) and it is not in a conflict or a conflict cool down period.
    • If multiple target factions fullfill the criteria, the one with the lowest influence% is selected.


Invasion War rules

  • An Invasion War is a War. See the section "War" above on this page.
  • This is the case even if the two factions would normally have an Election because of their Ethos. See the section "Government types and Ethos" above on this page.
  • While the Invasion War is ongoing, there are temporarily 8 factions present in the target star system: The 7 pre-existing factions (among which is the defending target faction) plus the expanding (= invading) faction.
  • The winning faction stays in the system, while the losing faction will instantly retreat at the end of the War cooldown (which is 1 day).


Expansion timetable

Once an Expansion has started, it cannot be stopped.

Expansions take place over a period of 10-14 days.

  • First there is a 3 day warm up.
    • TODO: Once the ambiguities in the BGS Guide have been cleared up, say something about when the source star system is selected. See the "[[#TODO|TODO]" section.
  • After the warm up period, the Expansion becomes Active.
  • The Active Expansion goes on for 5-10 days.
    • The BGS Guide states that it may be possible to extend short Expansion durations by doing Expansion related missions and handing in exploration data, although not beyond 10 days. But there appear to be no clear rules.
  • After the Active period, the Expansion becomes Completed.
    • At this point, the expanding faction will either expand to the target star system, or remain in their source star system, depending on whether the Expansion succeeded or failed.
  • After the Expansion is Completed, there is a final Cool Down period of 2 days.


Expansion effects

Faction State

  • During the Warm Up and Active periods of the Expansion, the faction can have no other state besides "Expansion".
  • TODO: Say something about the Cool Down period once the ambiguities in the BGS Guide are cleared up.


System State

  • During the Warm Up and Active periods of the Expansion, all systems that the expanding faction controls have the state "Expansion". The reason for this is that "Expansion" is a global state, i.e. it affects the entire set of star systems a faction controls.
  • TODO: Say something about the Cool Down period once the ambiguities in the BGS Guide are cleared up.


Faction Influence%

  • The expanding faction's Influence% in the source star system is reduced by 15%.
    • TODO: Say something whether this happens always, or only if the Expansion was successful.
  • TODO: Say something about the expanding faction's Influence% in the target star system.


Faction assets

  • TODO: Say something about the expanding faction's assets in the target star system.


Retreat

A faction that is in state Retreat in a star system is in danger of losing its foothold in that star system and leaving the star system entirely.

  • A faction goes into Retreat state when its influence% in a given star system falls below 2.5%.
  • The exception is when a faction is native to a star system - in that case the faction never retreats, regardless of its influence%. Thanks to this rule a faction always retains a presence in at least one star system and can thus never become extinct.
  • The Retreat state duration is 8 days:
    • Day 1: The Retreat is Pending.
    • Day 2-8: The Retreat is Active.
    • TODO: The ED Wiki [3] says that there are only 6 days when the Retreat is Active.
  • The faction loses 2% influence every day that the Retreat state is Active, but it cannot go below 1% influence.
    • The ED Wiki [3] clearly states the influence% loss and 1% cap, while the BGS Guide mention neither in its main "Retreat" section on page 68f. The BGS Guide lists the influence% loss in the State Duration tables on page 83, but not the 1% cap.
    • TODO: The ED Wiki [3] states that the influence% loss occurs "during the retreat" - it is unclear whether this includes the Pending day.
  • On the last day (day 8, or day 7 while the Retreat state is Active)
    • If the faction's influence is still below 2.5%, it will leave the star system.
    • If the faction's influence is above 2.5%, it will stay in the star system.
    • TODO: It is currently not known whether the faction leaves or stays when its influence is is exactly 2.5%. The ED Wiki [3] states "If the faction is still below 2.5% influence when the Retreat ends, it will be removed from the system."
  • Important: The Retreat check on the last day occurs BEFORE any influence% updates occur. As a consequence, activities on the last day have NO effect on the outcome of the Retreat!
    • TODO: Does the 2% influence loss also only occur after the Retreat check?
    • TODO: If the faction stays in the system, is the assumption correct that the influence% updates occur as normal? In other words, both the 2% influence loss occurs and also the influence% changes from player activities occur?
  • There is no way to find out on which day the Retreat is if you didn't notice when it started.
  • The usual methods to increase or decrease influence% apply.


Following are some consequences for player activities

  • If you are fine with a faction's Retreat, you don't have to do anything - the automatic 2% influence loss per day ensures that once a faction has entered the Retreat state, it will complete the Retreat, even when occasional unfocused player activities occur that slightly increase its influence% one a couple of days.
  • If you want to prevent a faction's Retreat, it is most efficient to wait with influence-increasing activities until the second-to-last day when the Retreat state is active.
    • If you already start to increase the faction's influence% before the second-to-last day, you will have to work hard every day to counter the automatic 2% influence loss.
    • If you start your activities on the second-to-last day, the faction's influence will be at 1%. At the end of the day you want the faction to be at 2.5% or higher, but since you also have to take the automatic 2% influence loss into account, you have to increase the faction's influence to 4.5% or higher.
  • Obviously, your strategy needs to vary if other players with plans opposing yours are active in the star system.


Daily and Weekly Ticks

Summary

  • The BGS system updates on a daily basis. This is called the "daily tick". The daily tick does not occur at a fixed time, in particularly it occurs at different times for different star systems.
  • Once per week - customarily on Thursday at 07:00 UTC - the game servers shut down for a weekly maintenance. This is called the "weekly server maintenance tick". The weekly tick does not affect the BGS directly (e.g. it does not change faction influence%), but its effects may later affect the BGS indirectly.
  • The daily tick has several phases during which different things are tallied up. Phases being processed in a given order can become relevant for resolving certain faction states (e.g. Retreat).
  • When the daily tick occurs, not every in-game indicator is updated immediately. According to [4] it can take 10 hours or more until all indicators for a given star system show what happened during the daily tick. The Station News generally update the fastest ("fairly instantly").


Phases and Effects table

Tick phases and effects
Tick type Phase Effect(s) Remark
Daily tick Conflict Resolution Conflict efforts are tallied, and winning days are awarded.
If a conflict ends, the asset at risk of the losing faction is assigned to the winning faction. As a result, the System Controlling Faction can change.
State Resolution States are introduced or concluded, sometimes with "taxes" applied to the applicable faction.
Specific example: Expansion concludes. 15% influence is deducted from the expanding faction. TODO: Where? Assumption: In the source star system.
Specific example: Retreat 'check is performed (i.e. not the actual Retreat, but the check whether the faction will retreat). Because the Retreat check takes place before the Effort Distribution phase, any player activities on that day will not affect the outcome of the check.
Effort Distribution Player activity is applied and distributed amongst the remaining factions.
Weekly server maintenance tick - Newly built stations and installations (Colonization) are brought online.
  • Starport services are available immediately after building a station, but Concourse services are not available until after the first weekly tick.
  • Station exteriors and interiors change to no longer indicate that construction is still under way. E.g. the ring of an Orbis no longer shows as partially constructed, landing pad indicators no longer show "Under deployment".
  • Construction sites that were lingering after a facility was built are removed.
  • The BGS will start to work only as expected in a newly colonized star system after the next weekly tick after you finished constructing the Primary Port.
PowerPlay 2.0 system states are updated.
Pioneer Supplies are restocked with fresh suits and weapons.


Q & A

General Q & A

What do the following mean: Economic influence, security influence, trade influence?

The BGS Guide uses the terms "economy slider" and "security slider" throughout. It clearly defines these terms on page 14 in the section titled "Sliders". They refer to the Economy and Security indicators, shown on the "Status" tab of the Internal Panel (the one on the bottom right of the game UI).

In other places, the BGS Guide use other terms: "economic influence", "security influence" and "trade influence". Here are the instances that I found (emphasis mine):

  • Page 19: "conflict efforts are tallied, and winning days are awarded to factions who have won [...] handed in the most election missions and economic influence."
  • Page 42: "Missions, including passenger missions, can provide either economic or security influence." and "Combat bounties provide security influence on the faction that issued the combat bounty."
  • Page 43: "Exploration provides economic influence."
  • Page 44: "Profitable trade in legal goods provides positive economic influence [...]"
  • Page 48: "[...] sales of mined commodities do not affect trade influence [...]"
  • Page 57: "On the last day of the war, tie breaker bonds, combat missions, and bounties that would ordinarily count towards the security slider are distributed as post-war security influence."

So what do these terms mean? For some time I was considering the option that the influence percentage shown for a faction is merely a "virtual" value, created through a combination of the Economy and Security values represented by the in-game sliders. But what does "trade influence" then mean? Does this refer to a hidden value, not shown in the game UI?

After some deliberation and discussions in my Squadron's Discord [4], I have now formed the working assumption that when the BGS Guide uses the terms "<foo> influence" it tries to conflate two things in one term:

  • When it says an activity has "economic influence", it actually means the activity affects the "economy slider" and in addition the activity affects the faction's influence%.
  • Likewise for "security influence" the effect is on the "security slider" and in addition on the faction's influence%.
  • Finally, "trade influence" should actually read "economic influence" (to stay with the guide terms) => see first bullet point above.


TODO

General TODOS

  • How to interpret the various reports available under "Station News" when you are docked at a station.
  • Describe Happiness. It's exposed in the game UI, but not as a slider as Economy and Security are. Based on a screenshot in the BGS Guide on page 33, it looks as if Inara renders this as a slider.
  • Write something about "Shortening event states with relevant trade commodities", a section that starts on page 47 of the BGS Guide.


  • The game normally discards influence% increases and decreases to lock two factions into conflict at the same influence% value. Assuming a faction's influence is at 15%, another faction's influence is at 10%, what happens if the first faction's influence is scheduled to drop to 5%? Does the game prevent the conflict because it sees that the first faction is scheduled to fall below the conflict threshold? Or does the game first discard the excess influence% decrease below the second faction's 10%, and thus allows the conflict to take place?
  • If one of the two factions engaged in conflict is the System Controlling Faction, is control of the star system always at risk?
    • If the answer is "yes"
      • Does this mean that the System Controlling Faction always puts the System Controlling Station on the table, even though it might have an asset that is more valuable? For instance, in September 2026 there was a conflict in Col 285 Sector UZ-P d5-100. The BP was the system controlling faction. Its "Pale Blue Outpost" (a space outpost) was at risk, as well as system control. The BP won the conflict and gained Vance Foundry, an Ocellus starport. Assuming that Pale Blue Outpost is the System Controlling Station, in the next conflict the BP should again have Pale Blue Outpost at risk, despite Vance Foundry being more valuable.
      • Or does this mean that the System Controlling Faction puts the System Controlling Station on the table IN ADDITION to its highest valued asset? Taking the Col 285 Sector UZ-P d5-100 example from above, would the BP have both Pale Blue Outpost AND Vance Foundry at risk?
      • Or does this mean that the System Controlling Station changes to be the highest valued asset of the System Controlling Faction? Taking the Col 285 Sector UZ-P d5-100 example from above, did the System Controlling Station change from Pale Blue Outpost to Vance Foundry after the BP won the conflict?
    • If the answer is "no": Does this mean that star system control is only at risk if the System Controlling Station is at risk?
  • If neither of the two factions engaged in conflict is the System Controlling Faction, does the star system's state still change to War or Elections?
  • The BGS Guide states on page 57: "On the last day of the war, tie breaker bonds, combat missions, and bounties that would ordinarily count towards the security slider are distributed as post-war security influence."
    • This implies that before the last day these activities do change the factions' Security, and on the last day they do not. Correct?
    • What does "distributed as post-war security influence" mean? In my understanding there is no such thing as "security influence", I therefore interpret this to mean that the factions' influence percentage value - as can be everywhere in the game UI - is affected.
  • Similarly to the previous bullet point, the BGS Guide states on page 61: "Any trade, exploration, or economic missions on the last day is tallied up and the resulting influence is distributed to the relevant faction, which means you can lose, but end up on top of the winner."
    • Unlike the previous bullet point, the wording does not imply that the activities have any effect on the factions' Economy - neither on the last day of the conflict, nor on any of the preceding days.
    • So do these activities have any effect on Economy or not?
    • If they do, is it correct to assume that only on the last day they do not, i.e. there is a similar conversion as for combat-related tie-breaker activities during a War?
  • The BGS confusingly states on page 61, one paragraph after listing tie-breaking activities, this: "You can use smuggling to reduce a controlling faction’s economy slider." This seems to contradict the previous entry in the tie-breaking activities list where it is implied that smuggling helps the faction that controls the station with the Black Market. So what is it - do you have to sell smuggled goods to a black market at your own station, or at an opposing station?
  • The BGS Guide describes in section "Taking over a system, slowly" on page 66f that when factions are in conflict their influence is locked, implying that during the conflict period a faction's influence cannot change. This is not described anywhere else in the guide.
    • Is this true?
    • If yes: Does the lock also extends into the 1 day Pending period and the 1 day Cool Down period?
  • Does the Cool Down after a conflict prevent only the two conflicting factions from initiating another conflict with each other, or does it prevent the conflicting factions from initiating another conflict with any faction (including each other)?


  • What is the selection criteria for the source star system? The BGS Guide has conflicting statements for this:
    • In section "Which system will be the expansion system?" on page 64 it states that "According to the game, expansions happen from systems that are happiest." and then on page 65 "However, in practice, the choice of which system to expand seems to be random."
    • In section "Expansion Timetable" on page 65 it states that "the one with the most influence will be the source system."
  • When is the source star system determined? The BGS Guide has two conflicting statements for this:
    • In section "Which system will be the expansion system?" on page 64 it states "The game will choose one of these two expansion systems on the last day of expansion."
    • In section "Expansion Timetable" on page 65 it states "the day that decides which is the source system is the first day of the pending expansion, and it will be shown in station news wherever the faction is present."
  • How much influence does the faction have when it enters a system?
    • In case of an Invasion War: Is it correct to assume that the expanding (= invading) faction takes over the influence of the defending faction when it retreats?
    • In other cases: What is the rule? Because of the 100% sum rule, any influence the expanding faction initially has will have to be taken away from the other factions. Is it correct to assume that the reduction to the other factions will be proportianal to their current influence?
  • What assets (stations, settlements, etc.) does the faction control when it enters a system?
    • In case of an Invasion War: Is it correct to assume that the expanding (= invading) faction takes over all assets of the defending faction when it retreats?
    • In other cases: What is the rule?
  • What is the tie breaker when multiple star systems fulfill the same target star system priority rule? The BGS Guide only state the tie breaker for the "Invasion War" rule. Specifically, what if there are several target star system candidates where 1) the faction has never been before and that have less than 7 factions; or 2) the faction has been before and that have less than 7 factions?
    • Option 1: Distance to the source star system (smaller distance wins)?
    • Option 2: Random winner selection?
    • Option 3: Some other criteria?
  • If a faction is still above 75% after the expansion completes, will it start another Expansion? The BGS Guide implies no, because it states that the faction needs to "go above 75%", which would mean the crossing of the 75% threshold is the trigger, which in turn would mean the faction first has to go below 75% first before it can start another expansion.
  • If there are two source systems to choose from, will the faction go into Expansion again after the first Expansion completes, this time for the second source star system? Or is the trigger "go above 75%" gone?
  • When is the Expansion target star system decided? The BGS Guide states on page 66 "At the end of the expansion, the faction will expand (or not) to the system shown in the station news".
    • This implies that the target system is announced only when the end of the Expansion is reached, i.e. when the Expansion completes after 10-14 days and the Expansion outcome is known.
    • This does not make sense, though, given that there might be an Invasion War in which the participants have to know that they need to fight.
  • If an Expansion fails due to no target star systems being eligible, does the Expansion still last 10-14 days?
  • If an Expansion attempt in the extended range succeeds, will the next Expansion attempt from the same source star system be again in the normal range, or will it continue in the extended range? It would make sense if the next attempt will be again in the normal range, given that the situation might have changed and there might now be eligible target systems in the normal range.
  • What happens if an Invasion War ends in a draw? Is it correct to assume that the Expansion will fail?
  • An Invasion War is a War, i.e. it lasts 4-7 days, plus 1 day cool down. It is reasonable to assume that this War period is part of the 7-10 day Expansion period. Correct?
  • In an Invasion War, what happens to the assets (stations, settlements, etc.) of the defending faction?
    • If the defending faction loses: Is it correct to assume that the expanding (= invading) faction takes over all assets of the defending faction when it retreats?
    • If the defending faction wins: Is it correct to assume that the defending faction keeps all of their assets?
    • If there is a draw: ?
  • In a regular War, the "asset at risk" changes side if there is a winner, and Odyssey Settlements can change sides regardless of who wins - even if there is a draw. In an Invasion War, the expanding (= invading) faction has no assets in the star system that is the target of the Expansion attempt. So can the expanding faction lose anything if they lose the Invasion War?
  • The BGS Guide states in section "Expansion Timetable" on page 66: "Other states, such as boom can still exist during the expansion cool down." The implications are ambiguous:
    • Because the guide says "other states", does this mean that the faction state can be simultaneously "Expansion" and "Boom" during Expansion cool down?
    • Does the statement imply that during the Expansion's warm up and active periods, the faction can have no other states than "Expansion"?
    • How do the answers to the previous two bullet points reflect on the state of the star systems controlled by the expanding faction?
  • The BGS Guide states in section "Expansion Timetable" on page 66 that a "15% expansion 'tax' will be applied". The way the paragraph is worded, it could mean that this "tax" is also applied if the Expansion failed. Which is true: The "tax" is applied only when the Expansion succeeds, or it is always applied?
  • In the case of an Invasion War, the BGS Guide does distinguish between a target faction being in retreat or not, thus implying that an Invasion War takes place even the target faction is in retreat. Is this correct?
    • Yes: What happens if the retreating target faction wins the Invasion War, or if the Invasion War ends in a draw?
    • No: Is it correct to assume that the expanding (= invading) faction automatically takes over the influence and assets of the retreating faction?
  • The BGS Guide states in section "Rules of Invasion" on page 66: "Even if the controlling faction is non-native, it is not possible to directly attack them with an invasion." What does this mean, exactly?
    • What would be an "indirect" way to attack them with an invasion?
    • Or does this simply mean that the System Controlling Faction can never be the target of an Invasion War? In other words: You first have to establish a presence in the star system, and then you can get into a War or Election (= "attack") with them?


  • The ED Wiki [3] states "Be aware that the Retreat check occurs before influence updates, so activity done on the final day of the retreat will have no effect on its outcome!". The BGS Guide does not state this explicitly, although it uses many words to convey the sense that you have to do activities on day 6 (day 5 when the Retreat state is Active). Is it correct to assume that the simple explanation provided by the ED Wiki is correct?
  • The ED Wiki [3] states "Retreats spend 1 day pending, then 6 days active", but the BGS Guide states that there is 1 Pending day and 7 Active days. Which source is right? The BGS Guide is confusing in that it describes the last 2 days like this: "Day 7. Active Day 6. THIS IS THE IMPORTANT DAY TO BE ABOVE (OR BELOW) 2.5%. Day 8. Active Day 7. The faction will stay or withdraw from the system." For both sources the last day that activities count is day 5 when the Retreat state is Active, but for some reason the BGS Guide tacks on an 8th day.
  • The ED Wiki [3] states that "The retreating faction loses 2% influence per day during the retreat (down to the minimum of 1%)". Does "during the retreat" include the Pending day?
  • The automatic 2% influence loss cannot decrease the faction's influence below 1%. The existence of this cap raises the question: Are the automatic 2% influence loss and influence changes from player activities summed up and then applied, or are they applied separately? If they are applied separately, then the question comes up: What is the order in which they are applied? If the automatic 2% influence loss is applied first, then hits the 1% cap, a subsequent player-induced influence change would need to raise the faction's influence only by 1.5% to pass the 2.5% threshold that saves the faction from Retreat.
  • The ED Wiki [3] states that "[...] the Retreat check occurs before influence updates, so activity done on the final day of the retreat will have no effect on its outcome!" The ED Wiki only mentions "player activities" - does the automatic 2% influence loss also only occur after the Retreat check? If not, then the faction would have to be at 4.5% on the second-to-last day to be safe from Retreat.
  • If the faction stays in the system, is the assumption correct that influence% updates occur as normal? In other words, BOTH the 2% influence loss occurs AND also the influence% changes from player activities occur?
  • The BGS Guide does not state what happens when the faction has exactly 2.5% at the end of the last day. Does the faction leave or does it stay? Given that the faction starts retreating when it falls below 2.5% influence, I would assume that it will stay when it is at 2.5%. This assumption seems to be true given the ED Wiki [3] states (emphasis mine) "If the faction is still below 2.5% influence when the Retreat ends, it will be removed from the system."
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